美聯儲是地球上效率最低的機構之一 你說呢?
2019年08月26日11:48

  來源:路聞卓立

  近日,Quill Intelligence的首席執行官兼首席策略師丹妮爾-迪馬蒂諾-布斯(Danielle DiMartino Booth) 在2019年CFA協會全球投資者研討會上表示她並不看好美聯儲,並稱,美聯儲是地球上效率最低的機構之一。

圖片 | Pixabay
圖片 | Pixabay

  迪馬蒂諾-布斯(DiMartino Booth)的觀點來自她為達拉斯聯邦儲備銀行(Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas)擔任顧問期間的經曆。她在華爾街工作後加入了這家銀行。在她職業生涯的開始,她不太清楚中央銀行做了什麼。“儘管我並不真正理解美聯儲是什麼,”她說,“但我有一種感覺,市場中有一隻看不見的手在起作用。”

  DiMartino Booth’s perspective is informed by her tenure advising the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, which she joined after working on Wall Street. At the start of her career, she wasn’t quite sure what the central bank did. “Even though I didn’t really understand what the Federal Reserve was,” she said, “I had a sense that there was this invisible hand at work in the markets.”

  雖然她看到美聯儲的影響力正在這些市場發揮作用,但她沒有預料到這種影響力會變得多麼極端。她說:“在某種程度上,就像我們現在這樣,美聯儲將真正接管我們所說的價格發現。”

  While she saw the Fed’s influence playing out in those markets, she did not anticipate how extreme that influence would become. “The Federal Reserve would, at some point — where we are today — come to literally take over what we term price discovery,” she said.

  當價格發現機製失靈時,就不可能判斷債券市場是否準確反映了公司發行人的財務狀況。與此同時,債台高築。

  When the price discovery mechanism fails, it becomes impossible to tell whether bond markets are accurately reflecting the financial health of corporate issuers. Meanwhile, debt has piled up.

  她說:“美國的企業債券市場在後危機時代翻了一番。而且,投資級債券市場與不斷增加的高風險債券相比相形見絀。摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)今年早些時候的一份報告顯示,在所有投資級債券發行中,超過一半的債券評級為BBB,如果信用評級被下調,這些債券將失去投資級的地位,成為高收益債券。

  “The corporate debt market in America has doubled in a post-crisis world,” she said. And the investment-grade bond market is dwarfed by increasing amounts of high-risk debt. According to a Morgan Stanley report from earlier this year, more than half of all investment-grade bond issues have BBB ratings that would lose their investment-grade status and become high-yield debt in the event of a credit downgrade.

  美聯儲主席傑羅姆-鮑威爾(Jerome Powell)承認,企業債務在增長,高杠杆化的商業領域可能會放大任何經濟低迷。DiMartino Booth說:“他似乎是輕描淡寫地上了格林斯潘學校。”

  Jerome Powell, the chair of the Fed, has acknowledged the growth in corporate debt and how the highly leveraged business sector could amplify any economic downturn. “It seems as if he went to the Greenspan School of Understatement,” DiMartino Booth said.

  她還批評了美聯儲官員在決策時使用失業率的方式。"美聯儲官員沒完沒了地談論失業率接近50年低點," DiMartino Booth稱。但這並不是一個真正有效的經濟指標。她指出,“具有諷刺意味的是,央行的政策是,他們繼續堅守50年來的最低失業率,不願看任何領先指標。”

  She also criticized the way that the unemployment rate is used by Fed officials when making policy decisions. “The people at the Fed talk endlessly about the near 50-year low in the unemployment rate,” DiMartino Booth said. But that isn’t really an effective economic indicator. she said. “The irony of central banking policy is that they continue to hang their hat on the 50-year low in the unemployment rate and refuse to look at any of the leading indicators.”

  目前的狀況也限製了美聯儲的行動能力。她表示:“在風險資產價格被高估到今天這種程度的環境下,在收益率曲線倒掛點和衰退開始點之間的距離要短得多。”

  Current conditions also limit the Fed’s ability to act. “In an environment in which risky asset prices are overvalued to the extent that they are today, you have a much shorter runway in between the point of yield curve inversion and the onset of recession,” she said.

  問題可能來自國內或國際根源。DiMartino Booth 說,“世界正處於一種被稱為衰退的狀態。現在,我們不談論它,因為這是不禮貌的。然而,她看到了全球經濟放緩和陷入困境的跡象。

  And problems could arise from either domestic or international sources. “The world’s in kind of this thing called a recession. Now, we don’t talk about it, because it’s not polite,” DiMartino Booth said. However, she sees signs of slowing and struggling economies across the globe.

  她說:“不知何故,從某種程度上說,德國這個第三大出口國成功實現了零增長,這樣就不是連續兩個季度的GDP負增長了。”“但從那以後,我們從德國看到的一切都表明,他們正在回到負增長的狀態。”

  “Somehow, some way, Germany — third largest exporting nation — Germany managed to eke out zero percent growth, such that it was not two consecutive quarters of negative GDP,” she said. “But everything we’ve seen out of Germany since then suggests that they’re going back into negative territory.”

  在所有這些發展中,鮑威爾處境艱難。“他無能為力,”DiMartino Booth說。“當下一個需要討論話題是負利率時,你的確沒有太多東西可做了。”

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